Seçilmiş Asya ülkeleri için ihracata dayalı büyüme modeli: Panel eşbütünleşme ve nedenselli kanalizi
Bu çalışmada petrol ihraç etmeyen Türkiye dahil 27 Asya ülkesinde 1994-2010 yılları içinihracata dayalı büyüme modeli panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizleri ile testedilmektedir. İki farklı modelde hem GSYİH ve hem de ihracatı içermeyen GSYİH üzerinde ihracat vebrüt sabit sermaye yatırımlarının etkileri tahmin edilmiştir. Sonuçta, her iki modelde de kısa ve uzundönemde ihracat ve brüt sabit sermaye yatırımlarından GSYİHya doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisitespit edilmiştir. Başka bir ifade ile bulgular 27 Asya ülkesinde ihracata dayalı büyüme modelinidesteklemektedir.
Export-led growth model for selected Asian countries: Panel cointegration and causality analysis
The aim of this paper is to investigate the export-led growth hypothesis for non export oil 27Asian countries including Turkey by using panel cointegration and panel causality technique for theperiod 1994-2010. In the two different models, it was estimated impact of exports and gross fixedcapital formation on GDP and non-export GDP. As a result, the empirical analysis impliesunidirectional causal relationship from exports and gross fixed capital formation to GDP in both shortand long-term. In other words, the findings support the export-led growth model for 27 Asiancountries including Turkey.
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