DÖVİZ KURUNUN TÜRKİYE İLE YUNANİSTAN İKİLİ TİCARETİNE ASİMETRİK ETKİLERİ

Makroekonomik değişkenler üzerine yapılan birçok çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki doğrusal olmayan ilişkiler, ihmal edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ve Yunanistan ikili ticaretinde doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan dinamikler incelenmektedir. Analiz çerçevesinde, Türkiye ve Yunanistan’ın 2003:1 ile 2017:4 dönemlerine ait aylık döviz kuru, tüketici fiyat ile sanayi üretim endeksi ve ikili ticaretine ilişkin veriler kullanılmaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında öncelikle verilerin birim kök testleri yapılmıştır. Sonraki aşamada, doğrusal ilişkiler ARDL modeli ve doğrusal olmayan ilişkiler, NARDL modeli yardımıyla analiz edilmiştir. Test sonuçlarına göre reel döviz kuru ile ikili ticaret arasında uzun dönemde asimetrik ilişkiye rastlanmaktadır. Uzun dönemde Euro’nun değer kaybetmesi de değer kazanması da Türkiye-Yunanistan ikili ticaretini, pozitif etkilemektedir. Bu bağlamda Yunanistan’ın, Avrupa Para Birliği’nde yer almasının, reel efektif döviz kurunun etkisini sınırladığı ve Türkiye-Yunanistan ikili ticaretini etkilediği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Döviz Kuru, Yunanistan, Türkiye, Ticaret Dengesi, ARDL, NARDL

ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE ON BILATERAL TRADE OF TURKEY AND GREECE

In many studies on macroeconomic variables, non-linear relationships between variables are neglected. This study examines the linear and nonlinear dynamics on bilateral trade of Turkey and Greece. Within the framework of the analysis, exchange rate, consumer price and industrial production index and the bilateral trade between Turkey and Greece are used as monthly data that covers the period from 2003:1 to 2017:4. In the scope of the study, at first, unit root tests of the data were performed. In the next stage, the linear relations were analysed by ARDL model and nonlinear relations were analysed with the help of NARDL model. According to the test results, in the long-term there is found an asymmetric relation between real exchange rate and bilateral trade. Both the depreciation and appreciation of the Euro positively affects bilateral trade of Turkey and Greece. In this context, it is thought that the presence of Greece in the European Monetary Union limits the effect of real effective foreign currency exchange and affects bilateral trade between Turkey and Greece

Keywords:

Exchange Rate, Greece, Turkey, Trade Balance, ARDL, NARDL,

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