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MAKROEKONOMİK FAKTÖRLERİN SERMAYE YAPISI KARARLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: BİST SANAYİ ŞİRKETLERİ ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Optimal sermaye bileşimine ulaşan şirketler, sermaye maliyetlerini azaltmakta; dolayısı ile şirket değerini maksimize etme amacına yaklaşmaktadırlar. Yatırım kararlarının yanı sıra finansman kararları da bu amaca ulaşmada büyük rol oynamaktadır. Şirketlerin sermaye yapısı kararları ve bu kararların şirket değerine etkisi finans literatüründe sıklıkla incelenmektedir. Bu etki sebebi ile değer maksimizasyonu amacı güden şirketlerin aldığı sermaye yapısı kararlarının hangi faktörlerden etkilendiği hem yöneticiler hem ortaklar hem de potansiyel yatırımcılar açısından oldukça önemlidir. Sermaye yapısı tercihlerini belirleyen etkenler, iç ve dış etkenler olarak sınıflandırılmaktadır. Likidite oranı, özsermaye karlılığı veya hisse başına kâr gibi içsel faktörlerin şirketlerin sermaye yapısı kararlarını üzerindeki etkisi önceki çalışmalarda ortaya koyulmuştur. Bu çalışmada, gayri safi milli hasılanın büyüme oranı, reel faiz oranı, döviz kuru, enflasyon oranı, M2 para arzı gibi makroekonomik faktörlerin, şirketlerin sermaye yapısı kararları üzerindeki etkisinin belirlenmesi amacı ile Borsa İstanbul’da faaliyet gösteren 222 sanayi şirketinden oluşan örneklem, panel veri analizi yöntemlerinden Sabit Etkiler Modeli (Fixed Effects Modeli) kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. 2008 – 2017 yılları arasındaki 10 dönem için yapılan analizin bulgularına göre, araştırmada kullanılan değişkenlerden GSYH büyüme hızı, reel faiz oranı ve döviz kurunun sermaye yapısı kararları üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğu; enflasyon oranının etkisinin ise negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Para arzı değişkeninin, sermaye yapısı kararları üzerindeki etkisi ise istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur.

THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON CAPITAL STRUCTURE DECISIONS: A STUDY ON BIST INDUSTRY COMPANIES

Companies that achieve optimal capital composition reduce capital costs and approach the goal of maximizing company value. In addition to investment decisions, financing decisions also play a major role in achieving this goal. Capital structure decisions of companies and the effect of these decisions on company value are frequently examined in financial literature. The factors affecting the capital structure decisions taken by the companies aiming to maximize the value for this effect are important for both managers and potential investors. Factors determining the capital structure preferences are classified as internal and external factors. The impact of internal factors such as liquidity ratio, return on equity or profit per share on the company's capital structure decisions has been demonstrated in previous studies. In this study, a sample of 222 industrial companies listed in Borsa İstanbul, to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth rate, real interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, M2 money supply on capital structure decisions, was analyzed using the Fixed Effect Model from the panel data analysis methods for 10 periods between 2008 and 2017. According to the findings of the analysis, GDP growth rate, real interest rate, exchange rate have a positive and statistically significant effect on capital structure decisions. The effect of the inflation rate was found to be significant and negative. The effect of money supply variable on capital structure decisions was found to be statistically insignificant.

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