Displacements and kinematics of the February 1, 1944 Gerede earthquake (North Anatolian Fault System, Turkey): geodetic and geological constraints

Kuzey Anadolu Fay Sistemi (KAFS) yaklaşık 2–110 km genişliğinde ve 1600 km uzunluğunda, kıta içi dönüşüm fayı niteliğinde bir levha sınırı olup, Anadolu plakası ve Avrasya plakası arasındaki sınırı oluşturur. Gerede fay zonu KAFS’nin batı kesiminde yeralan önemli aktif yapılardan biri olup 1–9 km genişliğinde, 325 km uzunluğunda, DKD gidişli sağ yanal doğrultu atımlı bir fay zonudur. Oluşumundan (Geç Pliyosen) günümüze değin geçen süre içinde Gerede fay zonunda biriken toplam atım yaklaşık 43 km’ dir. Bu toplam atım 16.5 mm/yıl gibi bir ortalama kayma hızına karşılık gelir. 1 Şubat 1944 Gerede depremi Gerede fay zonu içinde oluşmuştur. Ancak bu depremin kinematiği ve kaynak parametreleri tam olarak bilinmemektedir. Jeolojik olarak arazide haritalanan yüzey kırığı ve kırık boyunca atımlara dayalı olarak hesaplanan ortalama sağ yanal atım 4.37 m, yeni ölçülen en büyük sağ yanal atım ise 7.16 m’dir. Çalışma alanı ve çevresini kapsayan triyangulasyon ağı ilkin 1936–1943 yılları arasında kurulmuştur. Bu ağın 28 noktasında 1995–2004 yılları arasında yeni GPS ölçümü yapılmıştır. Intersismik deformasyon ve bölgeyi etkileyen diğer depremlerin kosismik deformasyon etkileri giderildikten sonra, 1944 Gerede depreminin neden olduğu kosismik yer değiştirmeler, yeniden hesaplanmıştır. Kosismik yer değiştirmelerin elastik yarı uzayda modellenmesi, 4.40 ± 0.11 m sağ yanal ve 1.02 ± 0.17 m normal atıma sahip bir yırtılma yüzeyini ortaya koymuştur. 191 km uzunluğunda ve 16 km derinliğinde olan bu yırtılma yüzeyi K76°D doğrultulu olup yer yer kuzeye ve bazan da güneye 85° ± 5° eğimlidir. 1 Şubat 1944 depreminin jeodezik skaler momenti ($M _o$)= 4.02x1020 Nm, jeodezik moment magnitüdü ise $M _w$= 7.74 olarak yeniden hesaplanmıştır. Yırtılma yüzeyi aşağı yönde yaklaşık 28 km derinliğe kadar genişletildiğinde önemli kayma dağılımı elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca, Gerede fay zonundan kaynaklanabilecek büyük bir depremin jeodezik ve jeolojik verilere göre yinelenme aralığı da sırayla 232 ± 25 yıl ve 266 ± 35 yıl olarak yeniden hesaplanmıştır.

1 Şubat 1944 Gerede depreminin (Kuzey Anadolu Fay Sistemi, Turkiye) kinematiği ve yerdeğiştirmeler: Jeodezik ve jeolojik kısıtlar

The North Anatolian Fault System (NAFS) is an approximately 2–110-km-wide, 1600-km-long right-lateral intra-continental transform fault boundary between the Anatolian platelet and the Eurasian plate. The Gerede fault zone is one of the major active structures in the western section of the NAFS. It is a 1–9-km-wide, 325-km-long and ENE-trending dextral strike-slip fault zone, with a total accumulated offset since its initiation (Late Pliocene) of about 43 km. This offset indicates an average geological slip rate of 16.5 mm/yr. The 1 February 1944 Gerede earthquake occurred within the Gerede fault zone. Based on recent field geological mapping of the rupture traces and offsets on it, the average and peak lateral offsets were measured to be 4.37 m and 7.16 m, respectively. A triangulation network covering the region was first set up between 1936 and 1943. Twentyeigth existing points of the network were reoccupied by GPS receivers between 1995 and 2004. Coseismic displacements for the February 1, 1944 Gerede earthquake were obtained at the reoccupation points by removing interseismic deformation and coseismic displacements of recent earthquakes. Modelling the coseismic displacements in elastic half space resulted in a rupture surface slippage of 4.40 ± 0.11 m and 1.02 ± 0.17 m in dextral and normal dip-slip directions, respectively. The 191-km-long and 16-km-deep rupture surface strikes N76°E and dips at 85° ± 5° both to north and south. In the present study the estimated geodetic scalar moment and moment magnitudes are $M _o$= 4.02 × 1020 Nm and $M _w$= 7.74, respectively. The rupture surface was extended down dip to a depth of about 28 km, and a significant slip distribution was recovered. Based on both the geodetic and geological data, the recurrence intervals for great seismic events to be sourced from the Gerede fault zone were calculated as 232 ± 25 years and 266 ± 35 years, respectively.

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