İnek Sütü Üretiminde Üretim ve Fiyat İlişkisinin Koyck Model Yaklaşımı İle Araştırılması

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1985-2015 yılları arasında Türkiye'de inek sütü üretim miktarı ile fiyatı arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Çalışma verilerinin analizinde, gecikmesi dağıtılmış modellerinden biri olan Koyck modeli kullanılmıştır. Modelde, inek sütü üretimi bağımlı değişken, gecikmeli fiyat serileri ve inek sütü fiyatlarından oluşan fiyat serileri ise açıklayıcı değişken olarak belirlenmiştir. Koyck model sonuçlarına göre, inek sütü üretiminin geriye doğru en fazla bir yılın fiyatlarından etkilendiği ve inek sütü fiyatlarında ortaya çıkan bu değişimin, inek sütü üretimini önemli ölçüde etkilemesi için gereken zamanın 2,9 yıl olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, inek sütü fiyatlarındaki 1 TL'lik artış, inek sütü üretimini 183372,4 ton azaltmıştır. Diğer yandan, bir dönem önceki fiyatlardaki 1 TL'lik artış da inek sütü üretimini 137345,9 ton azaltmıştır. Bu verilerden hareketle, serbest piyasa koşullarında oluşan inek sütü fiyatının, üretim miktarının belirlenmesinde oldukça etkili olduğu söylenebilir. Sonuç olarak, fiyat artışlarındaki dalgalanmalara karşı üretim planlamasının yapılması, etkin pazarlama olanaklarının oluşturulması, fiyat politikaları ve istikrârlı üretime yer verilmesi gibi ekonomik önlemler alınabilir

Investigation of Production and Price Relationship in Cow Milk Production by Koyck Model Approach

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the amount of cow milk production and its price in Turkey in the period between 1985-2015.The Koyck model that is one of the distributed lag models was used to analyse of these data. The production of cow milk was considered as dependent variable and the price series consisting of cow milk prices and lagged price series are considered as explanatory variable in the model. According to the results of Koyck model, it was determined that the production of cow milk was affected by the prices of maximum one year retrospectively and the time required to dramatically affect to production of cow milk of the change taken place in prices of cow milk was 2.9 years. Furthermore, the increase of 1 TL in price of cow milk decreases the production of cow milk by 183372.4 tonnes. On the other hand, the increase of 1 TL in prices in the previous period decreases the production of cow milk by 137345.9 tonnes. Based on these data, it can be said that the price of cow milk composed in the free market conditions is rather efficient in determination to production amount. In conclusion, economic measures such as making of production planning, constituting of efficient marketing opportunities, price policies and giving a place to stable production can be taken against to fluctutations in the price increases.

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