Uluslararası Ticaret Akımlarının Oynaklığı: ASEAN Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması Üyeleri Örneği

Bu çalışmada ASEAN serbest ticaret anlaşmasına taraf olan ve ticarettarifelerinde indirime giden on ülke için 1990-2017 yıllarını kapsayan birdönemde yıllık veriler ve panel veri teknikleri ile uluslararası ticaretakımlarının oynaklığı test edilmiştir. Uygulamadan elde edilen sonuçlaragöre ithalat ve ihracat bileşenleri arasında döngüsel bir ilişki vardır veekonomik büyüme değişkenine göre daha oynak oldukları ortadadır.Ekonomik büyümeden net ticarete doğru bir nedensellik olduğu tüm panelveri seti için söylenebilirken ülkeler özelinde Laos, Myanmar, Filipinler,Tayland ve Malezya’da uluslararası ticaret akımları oynaklığının nedenininekonomik büyümeden kaynaklandığı iddia edilememektedir. Ayrıca ticaretakımları değişken yani volatildir, çünkü ihracat ve ithalat hem kendiiçlerinde hem de ayrı ayrı ekonomik büyüme oranı ile eş-bütünleşiktir vedolayısıyla birlikte hareket ettikleri görülmüştür.

Volatility of International Trade Flows: Case of ASEAN Free Trade Agreement Members

In this study, the volatility of international trade flows have been tested in a period covering 1990-2017 for the ten members of ASEAN free trade agreement with annually indicators and panel data techniques. According to the results obtained from the empirical part, there is a cyclical relationship between import and export components and they are more volatile than economic growth variable. While it can be seen for the whole panel data set that there is a causality from economic growth towards net trade, it cannot be claimed that the volatility of trade flows in Laos, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia in particular is due to economic growth. Moreover, exports and imports are co-integrated both within themselves and separately by the economic growth rate, and thus they are moving together so international trade flows are not stable and uncertain.

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