Economic Effect of Globalization on Island of Mauritius: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Bu çalışma, 1981'den 2019'a kadar ekonomik küreselleşmenin Morityus üzerindeki etkisini ARDL yaklaşımı kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Ayrı ekonomik özellikleri nedeniyle, izole ada ekonomileri küreselleşmeye diğer ülkelerden farklı tepki verir. Çalışmamız Morityus'un küresel ticaret ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım (DYY) girişlerinin ülkenin GSYİH büyümesi üzerinde bir etkisi olup olmadığını araştırıyor. Bulgular, kısa vadede DYY girişlerinin GSYİH'nın büyümesi için bir itici güç olduğunu, uzun vadede ise bunun tersinin gerçekleştiğini göstermektedir. Aynı şekilde, küresel ticaret ile GSYİH büyümesi arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişki de aynı sonuçla sonuçlandı. Bulgularımız ışığında, Morityus Hükümeti'nin çeşitli ekonomik idari önlemler yoluyla küresel DYY'yi teşvik etmeye ve ülkenin küresel ticaretini geliştirmek için girişimlerde bulunmaya odaklanması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Küreselleşme, Uluslararası Ticaret, DYY, ARDL, Mauritius Adası

Economic Effect of Globalization on Island of Mauritius: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

This study analyzes the effect of economic globalization on Mauritius from 1981 to 2019 using the ARDL approach. Due to their distinct economic characteristics, isolated island economies react differently to globalization than other countries. Our study investigates whether Mauritius's global trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have an impact on the country's GDP growth. The findings suggest that in the short run, FDI inflows are an impetus for the growth of GDP, while in the long term, the opposite occurs. Likewise, the long-term relationship between global trade and GDP growth concluded with the same result. In the light of our findings, the Government of Mauritius needs to focus on encouraging global FDI using various economic administrative measures and taking initiatives for enhancing the country’s global trade.

Keywords:

Economic Globalization, International Trade, FDI, ARDL, Mauritius Island,

PDF

___

ATIF, S. M., SRIVASTAV, M., SAUYTBEKOVA, M., & ARACHCHIGE, U. K. (2012). Globalization and income inequality: a panel data analysis of 68 countries. MRPA Paper No. 42385.
BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M., HARVEY, H., & HEGERTY, S. W. (2014). Brazil–US commodity trade and the J-curve. Applied Economics, 46(1), 1–13.
BALASUBRAMANYAM, V. N., SALISU, M., & SAPSFORD, D. (1996). Foreign direct investment and growth in EP and IS countries. The economic journal, 106(434), 92-105.
BECK, U. (1992). From industrial society to the risk society: Questions of survival, social structure and ecological enlightenment. Theory, culture & society, 9(1), 97-123.
BEN HAMMOUDA, H., KARINGI, S., NJUGUNA, A., & SADNI JALLAB, M. (2006). Diversification: towards a new paradigm for Africa's development. Africa Trade Policy Centre Work in Progress, No. 35.
BLIN, M., & OUATTARA, B. (2009). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Mauritius: Evidence from bounds test cointegration. Économie internationale, (1), 47-61.
BORENSZTEIN, E., DE GREGORIO, J., & LEE, J. W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? Journal of International Economics, 45(1), 115-135.
BROWN, R. L., DURBIN, J., & EVANS, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 37(2), 149-163.
CHANG, H. J. (2005). Globalization, global standards, and the future of East Asia. Global Economic Review, 34(4), 363-378.
DE MELLO JR, L. R. (1997). Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey. Journal of development studies, 34(1), 1-34.
DE MELLO, L. R. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford economic papers, 51(1), 133-151.
DE PINERES, S. A. G., & FERRANTINO, M. J. (2018). Export dynamics and economic growth in Latin America: a comparative perspective. Routledge.
DICKEY, D. A., & FULLER, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
DUNNING, J. H. (1982). Explaining the international direct investment position of countries: towards a dynamic or developmental approach. In International Capital Movements (pp. 84-121). Palgrave Macmillan
DUNNING, J. H. (2015). The eclectic paradigm of international production: a restatement and some possible extensions. The eclectic paradigm, 50-84.
FEENSTRA, R. C., & MARKUSEN, J. R. (1994). Accounting for growth with new inputs. International Economic Review, 429-447.
FRIEDMAN, T. L. (2000). The Lexus and the olive tree: Understanding globalization. Anchor Books
GIDDENS, A. (1999). Risk and responsibility. Mod. L. Rev., 62, 1.
GREENWAY, D., MORGAN, W., & WRIGHT, P. (1999), "Exports, export composition and growth", Journal of International Trade and Development 8(1): 41-51.
GREENAWAY, D., MORGAN, W., & WRIGHT, P. (2002). Trade liberalisation and growth in developing countries. Journal of development economics, 67(1), 229-244.
HARRIS, R., & SOLLIS, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. Wiley.
INDER, B. (1993). Estimating long-run relationships in economics: A comparison of different approaches, Journal of Econometrics, 57, pp. 53-68.
JIN, J. C. (2000). Openness and Growth: An Interpretation of Empirical Evidence from East Asian Countries. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, (9)1, 5-17.
KEOHANE, R. O., & NYE JR, J. S. (2000). Globalization: What's new? What's not? (And so what?). Foreign policy, 104-119.
KOOP, K. (2004). Mauritius in an Era of Globalization: A Model for Catch-Up Development? Autrepart, (3), 109-132.
KRAVIS, I. B. (1970). Trade as a handmaiden of growth: Similarities between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The Economic Journal, 80(320), 850-872.
KWANASHIE, M. (1998). The concept and process of globalization. CBN Economic and Financial Review, 36(4), 340-341.
LEE, C. G. (2010). Health care and tourism: Evidence from Singapore. Tourism Management, 31(4), 486–488.
LEVIN, A., & RAUT, L. K. (1997). Complementarities between exports and human capital in economic growth: Evidence from the semi-industrialized countries. Economic development and cultural change, 46(1), 155-174.
MATTHEE, M., & NAUDÉ, W. (2008). The determinants of regional manufactured exports from a developing country. International Regional Science Review, 31(4), 343-358.
MICHAELY, M. (1977). Exports and growth: an empirical investigation. Journal of development economics, 4(1), 49-53.
NARAYAN, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics,37(17), 1979–1990.
NKORO, E., & UKO, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric methods, 5(4), 63-91.
NURKSE, R. (2009). Ragnar Nurkse: Trade and Development (Vol. 1). Anthem Press.
OBADAN, M.I. (2010). "Globalization: Concepts, Opportunities and Challenges for Nigeria development". Text of a paper presented at the training programme on economic reform.
OECD (2005), Measuring Globalization: OECD Handbook on Economic Globalization Indicators. OECD Publishing
OECD (2010), Measuring Globalisation: OECD Economic Globalisation Indicators 2010. OECD Publishing.
OHLIN, B. (1933). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press.
PESARAN, M. H., & SHIN, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," in Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century. Cambridge University Press.
PESARAN, M.H., SHIN, Y., & SMITH, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp. 289-326.
PHILLIPS, P. C., & PERRON, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
PRADHAN, R. P. (2008). Does economic growth promote foreign direct investment? Evidence from India and Malaysia. South Asian Journal of Management, 15(1), 7.
ROUND, J. I., & WHALLEY, J. (2006). Globalisation and poverty: implications of South Asian experience for the wider debate. In Globalisation and Poverty (pp. 92-104). Routledge.
SHATZ, H. J., & VENABLES, A. (2000). The geography of international investment (Vol. 2338). World Bank Publications.
SMITH, S. (1997). Restrictive Policy towards Multinationals: Argentina and Korea. Case Studies in Economic Development, 2, 178-189.
SUBRAMANIAN, A. (2001). Mauritius: A case study. Finance and Development, 38(4), 22-25.
SUNTOO, R. (2012). Globalization and its impact on the Mauritian society. https://www. yumpu.com/en/document/view/13959763/globalisationand-its-impact-on-the-mauritian-society-by-rajen.
THOMPSON, G. (2000). Economic globalization? A globalizing world, 85-126. Psychology Press.
UNCTAD (2001), World Investment Report, 2001. United Nations Publications.
VADLAMANNATI, K. C., TAMAZIAN, A., & IRALA, L. R. (2009). Determinants of foreign direct investment and volatility in South East Asian economies. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 14(3), 246-261.
WACZIARG, R. (2001). Measuring the dynamic gains from trade. The world bank economic review, 15(3), 393-429.
WALLERSTEIN, I. (1974). The Modern World-System I Capitalist Agriculture and the Origins of the European World-Economy in the Sixteenth Century, With a New Prologue. Academic Press.
WANG, J. Y. (1990). Growth, technology transfer, and the long-run theory of international capital movements. Journal of International Economics, 29(3-4), 255-271.
WANG, M. (2009). Manufacturing FDI and economic growth: evidence from Asian economies. Applied Economics, 41(8), 991-1002.
WORLD BANK. (2002). "Global Development Network (macro time series)." Vol. 2004. World Bank publications.
WORLD BANK. World Development Indicators database at https://data.worldbank.org.